New Article On Seeking Alpha

I’ve written my second article for financial mega-site Seeking Alpha, which details why I think shorting the stock RWT is a good way to profit off of the bear market in housing.

San Marcos Real Estate Collapse: prices down more than 50% from peak; well under 2004 pricing

San Marcos is one of the older cities in San Diego’s North County region, with a historic downtown. Nonetheless it has experienced rapid residential and commercial development, doubling in population from 39,000 in 1990 to about 78,000 today. Its population roughly mirrors the rest of San Diego, with a median family income of $75,860 ($6,000 higher than the US average) and 9.8% of families below the poverty line.

Condos

5XX Debra Place, 2 bed / 1.5 bath

Sold 10/06 290K

Bank owned foreclosure sold 6/08 @126K

-$164,000 (-57%) drop from 2006

Mission Park Condominiums #2xx
sold 8/05 $349K
resold 4/08 $160K
-$189,000 (-54%) drop from 2005

11XX Arbor Lane
sold 3/04 $260K
REO, for sale at $155K
-$105,000 (-40%) drop from early 2004

Mission Park Condominiums #1xx
sold 12/05 $312K
REO, for sale at $150K
-$162,100 (-52%) drop from 2005

57X Beverly Place
sold 3/06 $325K
For sale at $150K
-$175,000 (-54%) drop from 2006

-$3,900 (-3%) drop from previous sale in 6/2002

153X Grandon Ave.
sold 9/05 $315K
resold 5/2008 $140K
-$175,000 (-56%) drop from 2005

16XX Rue de Valle
sold 6/05 $310K
for sale at $149K
-$161,000 (-52%) drop

142X La Loma Lane
sold 2/06 $749K
Resold after foreclosure 6/08 $431K
-$318,000 (-42%) drop from 2006

343X De Leone Road
sold 6/04 $334K
For sale at $159K
-$174,900 (-52%) drop from 2004

353x De Leone
sold 7/06 $375K
REO, for sale @ 136.35K
-$238,650 (-64%) drop from 2006

4338 Altadena Ave #1xx
sold 9/05 $300K
REO, For sale at $161K
-$139,000 (-46%) drop

Detached Homes

158X Rambla Puesta

sold 5/04 $420K
resold 5/08 $212.5K
-$207,500 (-49%) drop from 2004

82X Mulberry Drive
sold 11/04 $540K
For sale @ $350K
-$190,100 (-35%) drop from 2004

23X Falcon Place
sold 6/04 $675K
resold 5/08 $500K
-$175,000 (-26%) drop from 2004

73X W Bel Esprit Circle
sold 4/06 $750K
resold 5/08 $507.5K
-$242,500 (-32%) drop from 2006

143X La Linda Drive (2/2, 1800SF)

sold 1/05 $750K

REO, for sale @ $327.75K

-$172,250 (-34%) drop from 2005

61X Hillhaven Drive (3/3 1500SF)

sold 9/04 $490K
short sale, for sale at $375K
-$115,000 (-23%) drop from 2004

81X Via Bella Donna(4/2 1200SF)

sold 8/04 $440K
REO for sale at $220K
-$220,000 (-50%) drop from 2004

106X Camino del Sol (5/3 2900SF)

sold 11/04 $655K
short sale, for sale at $475K
-$180,000 (-27%) drop from 2004

1308 Camino del Sol (4/3 1700SF)

sold 8/05 $555K
REO, for sale at $399K
-$156,000 (-28%) drop from 2006

Can California’s FirstFed Financial Bank Survive?

No, I think FirstFed (FED) will be another bank failure, and good short candidate. See my article on the subject here at seekingalpha.